Previously featured by the Institute of Policy Studies at National University of Singapore, Singapore Policy Journal at Harvard Kennedy School, Bertha Henson, Vulcan Post, The Middle Ground, The Harbus and other publications
Post-Election Research Update
On 10 July 2020 three months after our survey, 61% of Singaporeans voted for the PAP and 39% for the Opposition. Out of the 53% of voters that were late-deciders, 25% broke for the Opposition in July instead of 20% leaning towards the Opposition in April. Here is our analysis on the contributory factors that led to this result.
Presentation & Charts
(This includes weight factors and full list of survey questions)
Since 2015 when we conducted the first run of this survey, Singapore's political landscape has continued to evolve. The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), National University of Singapore (NUS), Blackbox Research, and other organisations continue to be leaders in deepening our understanding on how Singaporeans view key issues such as meritocracy, social mobility and social safety nets.
To this end, Quad Research updated and re-ran our pioneering 2015 "How Singaporeans Choose" survey questions for 2020. This survey measures Singaporeans' perceptions on the issues that matter to them and how this affects their political choices. All questions were benchmarked to international polls. The survey was conducted between 1-4 April 2020.
We hope that this project will reflect to Singaporeans how their perceptions evolve and how these perceptions influence their political choices. We believe that answering these questions is beneficial to Singapore as it enables better decisions as a community.
This Quad.sg survey was conducted from 1 to 4 April with 700 valid respondents that are eligible to vote. The sample was weighted for age, race and gender to reflect the demographic composition of Singapore’s citizen population based on the 2019 Census. The results have a 4.0% margin of error at the 95% level of confidence. The survey design is accredited to NBC, Gallup, SurveyMonkey, and Pew that provided the relevant benchmarks and methodology used in the poll. Weight factors and survey questions can be found in the appendix of the presentation of charts above.
To improve the accuracy of the results, surveys were delivered over the internet and all responses were anonymous. Self-administered online surveys have been proven to be better than traditional phone surveys at eliciting honest self-disclosure from respondents for sensitive topics such as community beliefs. (Pew Research, 2015).
SurveyMonkey Audience allows customers to conduct research from a pool of millions of people around the world who have volunteered to participate in surveys. More information about data quality and respondent selection for SurveyMonkey Audience can be found here. Recent polls conducted include the 2015 U.K. Election, job approval ratings of Donald Trump and other case studies.
We acknowledge that all surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. We welcome feedback on further research to be conducted.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Was the sample controlled for race, age or gender?
We surveyed a representative sample of 700 Singapore citizens aged 21 and above. The sample was weighted for age, race, and gender to reflect the demographic composition of Singapore’s citizen population based on the 2019 Census. This is similar to the sampling methodology for the Post-Election 2015 Survey conducted by the Institute of Policy Studies. Household income data was also captured.
Why online polling vs. other collection methods like phone surveys?
Self-administered online surveys have been proven to be better than traditional phone surveys at eliciting honest self-disclosure from respondents for sensitive topics such as community beliefs and political figures (Pew Research, 2015). With 88% of Singapore households having access to the Internet (Infocomm Development Authority, 2014), we hypothesised that online surveys would also be a good gauge of median voter sentiment for Singapore. We successfully proved the accuracy of this in our 2015 analysis.
Why aren’t there more polls in Singapore?
A number of polls have been conducted prior to or just after elections, including IPS Post-Election 2015 Survey and Blackbox Research’s work on measuring the pulse in Singapore. We selected the online polling methodology to fill the gap in previous electoral polling research in Singapore.
Is it illegal to publish a poll before, during, or after elections?
According to the Parliamentary Elections Act (PEA), no person is allowed to publish exit polls between the time that the writ for an election is called until the close of Polling Day. The relevant statutes are 78C and 78D.
We ran the fieldwork for our survey between 1 to 4 April 2020, and published findings on national-level beliefs on 21 April 2020. The Writ of Election was issued on June 23. Polling will be restricted between the Writ of Election and Polling Day, which is on July 10.
Who commissioned this project? Who funded this project?
Quad Research is an independent entity. This survey and research was funded entirely by team members acting in an individual capacity. All revenue earned from any other services will be reinvested for future public research
Why did you do this research? What was your motivation for doing this research?
Quad Research believes in the democratic process for a better Singapore. As a collective of individuals acting in a personal capacity, we believe that there is room for the advancement of political research in Singapore and that ordinary members of society are now able to undertake some of this work independently. Over the longer term, we hope that the improvement of political research will inform better decision-making by society.
Can we get consulting services? Can you conduct more research for us?
Please contact us via the contact form to discuss further. All revenue earned from any services will be reinvested for future public research.